OBC Open TT Series - 2005-Sep-01 - 15km (Rockliffe Pkwy) (EvtFactor= 0.9829)

Weather (18:00): Mostly Cloudy. Temperature: 25°C, Humidity: 55%, Dew point: 16&de;C, Wind: WSW 5km/h, Pressure: 100.8kPa, Vis: 24km, Humidex: 30.
Weather (19:00): Partly Cloudy. Temperature: 25°C, Humidity: 55%, Dew point: 15&de;C, Wind: WSW 5km/h, Pressure: 100.8kPa, Vis: 24km, Humidex: 29.
Weather (20:00): Mainly Clear. Temperature: 23°C, Humidity: 61%, Dew point: 15&de;C, Wind: SW 8km/h, Pressure: 100.9kPa, Vis: 24km, Humidex: 27.

September is here and the time trialling is still good. Of the 59 who had ridden previously in the 2005 OTT series, 30 improved and 3 tied their previous year-series best tonight. As well, you can see that there were a number of category best performances for 2005 hit tonight. Most impressive of these was almost certainly Mary Ajersch, who reset the OTT Series VDF (60-69 years of age) standard down to an impressive 24:23. Mary, about to turn 65 in a few weeks, also holds the ALL-SERIES VDF standard for the OBC Time Trial Series (OTT/WTT) of 24:20, set in the WTT series back on 2001-Aug-21, on a night when she even had a bit of a fall off of her bike - Surely she would have been in the 23's without the crash! It is also interesting to look at all of Mary's times handicapped by age via our current method. Tonight's performance ranks the best so far via this method (likely the crash in 2001 threw that one out of first spot), even though this method is considerably less generous towards women than it is towards men of the same age and cycling quality level. In particular, all 65 year olds are given the same handicap of 2:28 even though a woman will be several minutes slower than a man of the same cycling quality. Hence the woman is given less of a benefit for her increasing years than the man is. For example, giving a 2:28 benefit for a 24:23 ride rises the speed to 41.064 from 36.910 , ie., an increase of 4.154 km/h or a cube speed ratio (more reflective of the power associated with such an increase) benefit of 1.385 whereas giving 2:28 to a 65 year top quality man, riding, say, 22:00 would raise his speed to 46.075 from 40.909, ie., an increase of 5.166 km/h or a cube speed ratio benefit of 1.429. So the man of similar quality is getting a handicap time bonus of about 4.4% over Mary. Another anomaly of the current age handicapping method is the piece-wise linearity of the method, which certainly works against those not at the start of one of the linear handicapping zones, such as Mary and even more so for our oldest participant, Geoff Wright. At 77 years of age, he would have received an age-handicap of 100 seconds at age 59 and 8 more seconds per year since age 60 (currently a handicap of 4:04), a yearly bonus which has been decreasing in fractional effect since age 70. Mathematically, a direct result of giving a participant x more seconds per year for their handicap is that the proportional benefit of x more seconds is less each successive year! Geoff, at the 18th year in the 8-second per year handicap range (which was only added to fix the same mathematical problem that was clearly out-of-control in the 2002 Age-handicapping Method for the riders by age 60 after twenty years at the 5 second per year rate), is really getting short changed here. The mathematics is simple. Piecewise-linear is NOT sensible. One really needs a good, large, unbiased (ie., not the OBC data) statistical sample to set performance standards for each age. The British had devised such age-standards, even with attempts at gender-handicapping. By the way, the VTA method equates a 40 year old doing 25:30 for 10 miles with a 77 year old doing 34:06 for 10 miles. Translated to our distances, this would approximately equate a 40 year old doing 23:46 for 15 km with a 77 year old doing 31:46. That is the 40 year old speed of 37.867 km/h is equated with the 77 year old speed of 28.317 km/h. Geoff is considerably faster than that at about 33.395 km/h today, and such a speed, would hence be equated with a 40 year old speed of 44.6576 km/hr (20:09) by the British, ie., a handicap time of 26:57-20:09=6:48. So, the British method would give Geoff 2:44 more of a handicap than the 4:04 he would have received today via our method devised in 2003, and he would surely rank higher than 34th place! I'll implement such a method for your curiousity whenever I get the time, because I like mathematics and appreciate its utility in handicapping!

										PB Yr-Ser Pre PB Spd Yr-Ser Pre PB Yr-Ser-Crs Pre PB Spd Yr-Ser-Crs Pre PB Yr Pre PB Spd Yr Pre PB Yr-Ser #Pre PB Spd Yr-Ser #Pre PB Yr #Pre PB Spd Yr #Pre PB Db Pre PB Db Crs Pre PB Spd Db Pre PB Yr-Ser PB Spd Yr-Ser PB Yr PB Spd Yr PB Db PB Spd Db PB Spd Shown PB Spd Shown Pre CB Yr-Ser CB Db Pre CB Yr Pre CB Spd Yr-Ser CB Yr CB Spd Yr CB Db CB Spd Db CB Spd Shown GB Yr-Ser GB Spd Yr-Ser GB Yr GB Spd Yr GB Db GB Spd Db GB Spd Shown SubGrp B Spd B Spd Shown
BESTS?
Y		1	Datars, Paul	OBC	19:51	45.340	1/61	U50M	1/19	1.0180
			Nash, Michael	OBC	19:51	45.340	1/61	U40M	1/12	0.9800
		3	Rendall, Glen	OCA	20:13	44.518	3/61	U40M	2/12	0.9510
Y		4	Sudac, Rick	OBC	20:27	44.010	4/61	U60M	1/7	1.0250
		5	Henschel, Peter	OBC	20:50	43.200	5/61	U50M	2/19	0.9860
		6	Campbell, Colin	OBC	21:20	42.188	6/61	U50M	3/19	0.9980
		7	Wright, Eric	OBC	21:38	41.602	7/61	U40M	3/12	1.0540
		8	Durand, Bernard	OBC	21:47	41.316	8/61	U50M	4/19	1.0870
		9	Christie, Blair	OBC	21:51	41.190	9/61	U40M	4/12	0.9930
		10	Munden, David	OBC	21:54	41.096	10/61	U40M	5/12	0.9680
		11	Cameron, Allen	OBC	22:02	40.847	11/61	U50M	5/19	0.9620
		12	Brill, Brent	OBC	22:07	40.693	12/61	U40M	6/12	1.0070
		13	Katz, Joel	OBC	22:10	40.602	13/61	U50M	6/19	1.0000
		14	Bennett, Michael	OBC	22:11	40.571	14/61	U40M	7/12	1.0550
		15	Moerman, Bram	OBC	22:15	40.449	15/61	U70M	1/3	1.0020
		16	Martignago, Mike	OBC	22:28	40.059	16/61	U50M	7/19	0.9330
Y		17	Lamarche, Simon	OBC	22:34	39.882	17/61	U17M	1/4	1.0130
		18	Burdett, Avery	OBC	22:45	39.560	18/61	U70M	2/3	0.9930
			Coldwell, Michael	OBC	22:45	39.560	18/61	U50M	8/19	1.0700
		20	Partridge, Stephen	OBC	22:49	39.445	20/61	U40M	8/12	0.9980
			Somogyi, Michel	OBC	22:49	39.445	20/61	U30M	1/3	0.9700
		22	Gauthier, Antoine	OBC	22:58	39.187	22/61	U30M	2/3	0.9910
			Musson, Harry	OBC	22:58	39.187	22/61	U60M	2/7	0.9890
		24	Hoisak, Dean	OBC	22:59	39.159	24/61	U40M	9/12	0.9660
		25	Wilkinson, Ross	OBC	23:00	39.130	25/61	U50M	9/19	1.3550
		26	Marushko, Roman	OBC	23:06	38.961	26/61	U50M	10/19	0.9940
		27	DeVidi, Robert	OBC	23:11	38.821	27/61	U50M	11/19	1.0980
		28	Pazdzior, Ellen	OBC	23:17	38.654	28/61	U50F	1/2
		29	Hess, Detlef	OBC	23:22	38.516	29/61	U50M	12/19	0.9870
		30	Russell, Susanne	OBC	23:24	38.462	30/61	U30F	1/2	0.9230
		31	Burge, Larry	OBC	23:27	38.380	31/61	U50M	13/19	0.9230
		32	Danais, Marie	OCA	23:31	38.271	32/61	U40F	1/3	1.0500
		33	Boyd, Derek	OBC	23:35	38.163	33/61	U30M	3/3	0.9380
			Hall, David	OBC	23:35	38.163	33/61	U50M	14/19	1.0720
		35	Austen, Ian	OBC	23:50	37.762	35/61	U50M	15/19	1.0280
		36	Gobuyan, Tim	OBC	24:07	37.319	36/61	U19M	1/1	1.0130
		37	Humphreys, Les	OBC/ABC	24:10	37.241	37/61	U70M	3/3	0.9900
		38	Powers-Kelly, Sean	OBC	24:11	37.216	38/61	U17M	2/4	0.9530
		39	Marchand, Claude	OBC	24:14	37.139	39/61	U50M	16/19	1.2370
Y		40	Ajersch, Mary	OBC	24:23	36.910	40/61	U70F	1/1	1.0950
		41	Janusauskas, Vytas	OBC	24:27	36.810	41/61	U60M	3/7	0.9840
		42	Lee, Connor	OBC	24:31	36.710	42/61	U17M	3/4
		43	McLaughlin, Brian	OBC	24:39	36.511	43/61	U50M	17/19	1.0290
		44	Ross, Michael	OBC	24:43	36.413	44/61	U40M	10/12	0.8540
		45	Bradley, Kathy	OBC	24:49	36.266	45/61	U40F	2/3	1.1060
		46	Weiner, Lorne	OBC	24:54	36.145	46/61	U60M	4/7	1.0410
		47	Mills, Peter	OBC	24:55	36.120	47/61	U40M	11/12	1.0680
		48	Fee, Norm	OCA	25:00	36.000	48/61	U50M	18/19	1.0740
		49	Marchand, André	OBC	25:09	35.785	49/61	U17M	4/4	1.0490
		50	Coburn, Richard	OBC	25:12	35.714	50/61	U40M	12/12	0.9630
		51	Foote, Lloyd	OBC	25:16	35.620	51/61	U50M	19/19	1.0810
		52	Hind, Terry	OBC	25:31	35.271	52/61	U60M	5/7	1.0320
Y		53	Blondin, Ivanie	OBC	25:33	35.225	53/61	U17F	1/1	1.0180
		54	Konantz, Patricia	OBC	25:43	34.997	54/61	U60F	1/1	1.1000
		55	Stoeger, Monika	OBC	25:44	34.974	55/61	U40F	3/3	1.0640
		56	McInnis, Celia	OBC	25:55	34.727	56/61	U50F	2/2	0.9680
		57	Stein, Hurd	OBC	25:58	34.660	57/61	U60M	6/7	1.0490
		58	Skvaridlo, Rick-Paul	OBC	26:16	34.264	58/61	U15M	1/1	1.0000
		59	Scallion, Kate	OBC	26:50	33.540	59/61	U30F	2/2	1.7850
Y		60	Wright, Geoffrey	OBC	26:57	33.395	60/61	U80M	1/1	1.0000
		61	Hardy, Robert	OBC	27:30	32.727	61/61	U60M	7/7	0.9710
			Average Speed of all of the above 5 finishes (75km in 01:37:12):						46.296
>>>			Average of the Average Speeds for these 5 finishes						46.307	<<<

Thanks to our Helpers: John Ajersch, Sean Gates, Jim Glover, Alison Ingham, Allison McKay, Andrea McKay.